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Chart of the DaySunday, October 18, 2026 · The AI buildout

IGV/SMH has bounced 48.1% from its Jun 22, 2026 low and is up 16.2% over 63 sessions

Chamath says open source clones make software IP and moats worthless, and the ratio is still 42.3% below its Oct 22, 2025 peak. But IGV/SMH sits above its 50-day average and has gained 16.2% in 63 sessions, so the lag is the one-year story and the recent tape is a catch-up.

What you are looking at

One line divides Software (IGV) by Semis (SMH). When it rises, IGV is beating SMH; when it falls, SMH is winning, whatever the market as a whole is doing. The second line is the ratio's own 50-day average, its trend.

Why it matters

If software moats were really worthless, this ratio should keep sliding, and a 48.1% rebound from the Jun 22 low says the market isn't pricing that right now. Watch the 50-day average: a drop back below it would put the one-year lag back in charge.

What they are saying

Chamath on All-In: open source decompiled clones of Adobe's core products mean software IP and moats are worthless.

All-In Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya

What the data shows

IGV/SMH is 42.3% below its Oct 22, 2025 peak, 48.1% above its Jun 22, 2026 low, above its average, up 16.2% over 63 sessions.

Our read

The lag is real over the year, but the ratio has turned up and the current trend runs against the claim.

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